Opinion: Agricultural Commodities, a delicate balance between food, economy and climate change
A Commodity It is one Tangible raw material used in the production of more elaborate goods. It is characterized by their homogeneity between producers and the volatility of their prices. Among the most relevant agricultural commodities are Corn, rice, wheat, cocoa and coffee.The importance of agricultural commodities lies in their fundamental role in the food of the world population and its impact on the economic stability of many regions. Events such as pandemic or war conflicts have a direct impact on their prices, as seen with wheat after the war between Russia and Ukraine. High volatility in the price of these products It is significant risks for the entire production chain. By 2025, the projections indicate that The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, wheat, corn and rice will continue to decrease due to abundant supplies. A 2% drop in agricultural prices in 2024 and 2025, driven by abundant crops and a robust global offer is expected. Different is the case of the chocolate (cocoa) and coffee, two of the most entrenched pleasures in our society, where we have seen a constant increase in their prices. Price fluctuations pose an economic challenge for producing countries, many of which depend on the exports of these raw materials to finance public investments. In recent years, in addition to geopolitical causes, global production chains of production and agricultural supply have been seen affected by climate change. This alteration also compromises economic stability, affecting both companies and communities dependent on the sector. Climate variability has returned the yields of the most unpredictable crops, reducing the availability of these products. Evaluations towards 2050 indicate that climatic risks will continue to threaten these fundamental raw materials, Even in optimistic scenarios with low emissions, which highlights the urgency of adaptation measures. cocoa, They are highly sensitive to these changes. The high geographical concentration of its production increases the risk of shortages. For example, 90% of rice is cultivated in Southeast Asia, a region particularly exposed to extreme climatic events. By 2050, it is estimated that more than 30% of corn and 50% of wheat will be subject to significant drought conditions in a high -emission scenario.In the case of cocoa, 70% of world production comes from tropical countries of the African continent and 24% of Latin America. Cocoa prices, in 2024 they have reached record levels due to supply chain interruptions, adverse climatic conditions and increased demand. He Cost of cocoa, a key ingredient for the elaboration of chocolate, shot 136% between July 2022 and February 2024. The price per ton in the future market, exceeded $ 10,000 for the first time in history on March 26, 2024.Over the years, the growing demand has promoted the massive fool of jungles to expand its cultivation. In Many countries, cocoa is cultivated as monoculture, which has contributed to deforestation and the degradation of ecosystems. Environmental challenges such as change in weather patterns, aging of trees and the propagation of diseases have devastated crops in key producing regions, which has resulted in lower yields and higher production costs. In the case of the case of the Café, Latin America is a good example to expose the consequences of climate change on this crop. The growing demand for coffee is affected by adverse climatic conditions that reduce its production and cause increased price. In the case of coffee, Latin America is a good example to expose the consequences of climate change on this cropBrazil produces around a third of the coffee in the world, which makes the country the largest producer in the world. The worst drought in 70 years in Brazil, has promoted a 43% increase in the price of the Arabic variety, estimating that the harvest for the 2024/25 season is the lowest in 13 years, due to the lack of rainfall. Vietnam, second world producer of coffee, Face a deficit in the offer due to droughts for the fourth consecutive year, and a significant decrease in the cultivable area by 2050 is projected. In summary, Price volatility, exacerbated by geopolitical events and the growing threat of climate change, puts economic production and stability at risk. It is crucial to adopt urgent measures of adaptation, promote sustainable agricultural practices and recognize the undeniable reality of climate change to guarantee the future of food and prosperity of agricultural communities. The author is an agronomist engineer, with a mastery at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem . It was part of the Rural Extension Service belonging to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Israel, currently occupies the position of Director of the Department of Foreign Relations and International CooperationAccording to The criteria of
